The basic geopolitical assumptions of today:
-Rise of China to equality and than beyond USA in terms of international influence
-Continuation of globalization
-Slow relative decline of US
-Slow integration of EU into a non-federal but non-supranational middle ground political entity
-Continued heating of the climate
-Irrelevance of Russia and Japan
-Rise of the BRICS and others as Europe declines long-term
-Rise of non-state actors to prominence
The Irrationality of this Worldview:
-The US is a resilient economy and emerged, unanimously accepted, as the focal point of the int'l system in 1991; how does a rise last such a short amount of time? As well, continued growth in all power parameters for China mandates continued local and internal stability; in reality, China's rise inevitably displaces countries around it, countries who don't want to be pushed aside and will push each in their own ways against China; China as well is bound for a rough path domestically as it rises and outgrows its rigid political structure.
-Globalization (a buzzword for many things, all of whose continuation are in question) mandates a peaceful and balanced geopolitical environment to flourish; if numerous new powers are rising simultaneously, at least one of these is likely to cause friction down the line, thereby creating a crisis disrupting globalization.
-The EU is a collection of independent states which frequently get nothing done unless there is consensus. As well, it is hard to imagine without an act of God these countries pulling together into something unique and new, changing how the whole system works.
-Despite claims of consensus on clmate change, evidence shows other lines of thinking parallel to the consensus and the forcing aside of these other lines of thinking. In reality, the continued warming remains up for debate until we are too late.
-Russia is the largest country in the world and maintains a massive conventional force, along side its nuclear forces; it also maintains a huge economy and is one of the few countries with political, economic, and military influence over a distinct sphere of countries. Japan has begun the process of military normalization as China pushes up against it, and it remains the third largest economy; it maintains powerful allies, a strong "self-defense" force, and is a regional power in its own right which must be factored in to any worldview.
-Despite difficulty consolidating into one federal unit and many hurtles over which to jump, Europe remains powerful; it may undergo a long decline over the course of the century, but this doesn't mean it will fade into irrelevance, nor will its constituent countries. The BRICS and the "Rest" will not all rise as a group; instead, they will rise only so far until they hit a wall present either internally or in the international system.
-Al Qaeda is a perfect example of a non-state actor trying to rise to prominence. They were weak at the end of the day, having no real sate-like capabilites except for provoking and harrassment. We still have to wonder how do non-state actors of all kinds measure up to states. As international organizations attempt to exert power over their members, they push with very little force and under tremendous constraints.